Monday Morning Quarterback: One Foot in Front of the Other

Todd Harrison  Nov 17, 2008 9:40 am

Monday Morning Quarterback: One Foot in Front of the Other
 
In terms of tangible results, the G-20 summit was anticlimactic.
 

 
  • Through the lens of “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation,” a weaker greenback and/or higher commodities would be a welcome signal for equity investors.

  • The notion of a “seismic shift” between asset classes continues to vibe, particularly as credit conditions deteriorate and foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets lose patience.

  • Riddle me this, Minyans—if the government can declare martial law on equity short-sellers, why can’t they eradicate CDS contracts that aren’t offset by underlying collateral?


  • We’ve long noted that there are two types of thrift: involuntary and voluntary. The former is when you can’t afford to fill up your car to take your family to Applebee’s. The latter is when you’ve got money in the bank but choose not to spend it. We’re currently caught smack dab in the middle of both.

  • Over the last few days, I dined with friends in the hedge fund community who are “killing it” (both are up well into the double digits). You know what they’re seeing into year-end? Redemptions as, despite their excellent performance, investors are getting liquid wherever and however they can.

  • The upside of anger? The cost of living declined last month at the highest clip in 60 years.

  • Remember in early 2007 when Fortress Investment Group (FIG) went public and the Street was a flutter? We noted the flies in that try at the time and they’ve indeed been buzzing since.

  • Peering around the corner at potential upside performance anxiety--and given the putrid performance of late--keep the master beta names on ye radar as potential "bang for the buck" vehicles. These include Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM), Baidu (BIDU) and Apple (AAPL), among other once proud high fliers.

  • The critters receive word two weeks from tomorrow on their Emmy nod and two days thereafter, we’ll be partying for children’s education (you’re invited!). We’re thrilled to be considered so win, lose or draw, we’re keeping it in perspective.

  • Consistent with my stylistic approach of late—and with the exception of a small crude position—I went home flattish on Friday. With volatility as it is, I’m content to hit it and quit it and share my best ideas in real-time.

  • I’m all for the Yankees grabbing CC Sabathia but I can’t help but wonder when deflation will arrive in the sports world. Six years at $140 million is a lot of money when folks will struggle to afford a ball game.

  • A perspective directive by Mitch Albom (thank you Detroit Minyan Art).

  • Gotta hop the fence to the Buzz & Banter, Minyans. Have a great week and remember that profitability begins with.


R.P.


Did you know the doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open? Have you yet locked your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out? (This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather.)

Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (5) See All Comments »
11-17-2008, 11:16 am
Although I love steak,
I love hamburgers too,
I've giving up my Macallan,
Canadian Club ( in plastic ) will have to do
Hawaii is out, so is Squaw Valley
Easy Street was so close, but I'll just use the alley
Read More
11-17-2008, 6:04 pm
"Riddle me this, Minyans—if the government can declare martial law on equity short-sellers, why can't they eradicate CDS contracts that aren't offset by underlying collateral?"

Toddo,

You have bee
Read More
11-17-2008, 6:35 pm
And who will deal with this, and when? The new administration, or the current who have ties to say GS, and can deliver favorable terms?
Third possibility is sweep under the rug, as long as a way can be found to keep the powder keg from explod
Read More
11-17-2008, 6:48 pm
I would prefer (not that my opinion matters) that they figure out a way to unwind this now, even if JPM and GS get favorable treatment.
Even if they have to do it quietly within a "committee" in treasury that sets up a mechanism or
Read More
11-17-2008, 8:32 pm
I think it is the least they could do for all the bailout money we have been giving them.
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
Position in crude proxies, RIMM, DXO

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
SPX »AMZN »RIMM »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert