Freaky Thursday Potpourri: The Liberty Dwell Todd Harrison Jul 02, 2009 10:10 am |
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The holiday stretch is upon us and not a moment too soon. Following the bi-polar stroller from the depths of despair to an all-clear repair, we tee up the back nine much the way we started this round, albeit with a few less hair follicles.
As mentioned yesterday, I’ll deep dive our ten themes on Monday when most folks are back in the saddle. For today, I’m gonna invoke my A.D.D. poetic license and hopscotch a few topics that are rattling around my crowded keppe. There are crosscurrents galore, so let’s hop to it and juggle the struggle:
- Minyan Peter’s take on Municipal Finance, The Third Derivative is required reading for all ye faithful.
- Hoofy & Boo’s take on corporate family feuds is required smiles when we need them most.
- As there are rumblings of something "geopolitical" on tap, please join me in a prayer for peace over the 4th of July holiday stretch.
- Amazon (AMZN) lost 4% after I cued up a put purchase yesterday (three times) and never pulled the trigger. You know what I did about that about it? Nothing!

- If I’ve learned anything through the years, it’s that profitability resides in the ride ahead and opportunities are made up easier than losses, right?
- Takeaways from yesterday’s session? Let's see, in no particular order:
- American International Group (AIG) was down 24%, just like the good ol' days.
- The rest of the financials shrugged it off for most of the session but got the black lung into the close.
- Purple is the new pink and S&P 930 is the new S&P 950 until proven otherwise.
If this is the "upside window" (into quarter-end and monthly flows), the odds have increased, on the margin, that S&P 956 is the 2009 Widow's Peak.- I may be very wrong (some corporate credit proxies continue to improve) so please understand this is one dude's opinion.
- Dude!
- Work to live, don't live to work.
- Try to enjoy the journey. In 100 years, today's P&L likely won't matter!
- American International Group (AIG) was down 24%, just like the good ol' days.
America’s Worst Nightmare!
Our peeps on the Street tell us they've seen "meaningful real money buying" in the homies over the last week or so.
As the homebuilders were the first sector to fail—a domino that hit the financials, financials in drag (General Electric (GE), General Motors (GPM), Ford (F)), retail, tech, energy and so on and so on—they're worth monitoring for signs of life.
While I doubt we've hit bottom (consumer despair will likely arrive in waves), we can learn a lot just by watching. Through that lens, please note the long-term downtrend line (and attendant pennant) in the HGX.
If O-Dog and his crew roll north, Hoofy will likely ride shotgun.
Answers I Really Wanna Know...
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How do you reconcile "never short a dull tape" with "using price action to your advantage?"
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Carefully?
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If your longs were shorts and your shorts were longs, would your perception of the price action be any different?
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The Wall Street Journal-China will be running Memoirs on their front page as a daily column for the next 18 weeks? (yes)

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Who was it that said you don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your friend?
- Why can't I have hair inflation and weight deflation instead of the other way around?
Have an awesome holiday stretch, Minyans, and remember to Do Something Joel as a random act of kindness is a powerfully positive pebble in the pond of life.
R.P.
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Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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